The quantum dawn is breaking - are we ready?

Picture this: a calculation that a conventional super-computer would need 10²⁵ years to complete – far longer than the 13.8 billion-year history of the cosmos – now folds in under five minutes on Google’s Willow quantum processor. That single comparison marks the end of incremental progress and the start of a genuine technological rupture.

IBM’s decisive stride

IBM has just crossed the fabled “error-correction threshold.” By lengthening qubit coherence times five-fold and slashing the overhead of error correction by 90 %, Big Blue plans to deliver 200 fully corrected logical qubits by 2029 and scale to 2,000 soon after. In practical terms, the industry consensus is that roughly 150 logical qubits unlock commercially relevant chemistry, materials, and optimisation workloads – so IBM’s roadmap points straight at the heart of real-world value.

The encryption time-bomb

Meanwhile, a fresh archive pre-print from Google’s Quantum AI lab argues that even without full error correction, fewer than one million noisy physical qubits could factor a 2,048-bit RSA key in about a week. Combine that with IBM’s error-rate breakthrough and suddenly the digital lockbox protecting global banking, diplomacy and defence could be forced open well before 2029. Agencies stockpiling encrypted traffic today might read it in clear tomorrow.

Oxford’s precision leap

As if on cue, Oxford researchers have posted a record: just one error in 6.7 million quantum operations. Such fidelity was unthinkable a year ago. The field is no longer crawling; it is sprinting on multiple, divergent tracks – superconducting at IBM, photonic at PsiQuantum, ion-trap, topological – all racing toward utility.

When quantum meets AI

Now overlay the other exponential: frontier AI systems already draft code, design molecules and interrogate vast corpora with supra-human fluency. Marry that reasoning power to quantum sampling and simulation and you do not merely accelerate R&D – you jump a scale. Drug discovery collapses from months to hours; battery chemistry evolves in silico before lunch; climate and fusion models iterate at speeds that once belonged to science fiction. This is the birth of an augmented intelligence that blends human vision, algorithmic creativity and quantum brute force.

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What it means for us

We stand before a hinge of civilisation, not a marketing-deck “revolution.” The choices we make in the next few years – up-skilling teams, migrating to post-quantum cryptography, framing ethical guard-rails – will echo for decades. Passive spectatorship is no longer an option; participation is a responsibility.

So lean in, learn fast, and help write this next chapter. The quantum age is not merely approaching – it is already booting up.

By Luc Bretones